Caleb Ferguson
CIN • P • Throws L • 2026 Season
Value
Standard score (σ), not a percentile, vs all qualified pitchers — 0 = average, +1 = one standard deviation above the mean. Built from 5x5 category z-scores (like Baseball Monster).
Control & Efficiency
Strike-throwing and length profile — drives the Likely-QS / High-K/BB start flags. The bar under each stat is this pitcher's percentile vs 207 qualified MLB starters (100th = best — already direction-adjusted, so a low BB% or P/PA scores high).
Arsenal
Throwing hand and pitch mix (share of pitches thrown) — the traits the matchup ratings below weigh against each opponent's splits.
Season Stats
The big number is the actual stat. The bar below it is this pitcher's percentile vs 385 qualified MLB pitchers (≥30 IP) this season — 100th = best, direction-adjusted (a low ERA/WHIP/BB scores high).
Splits & Tendencies
How this pitcher fares by batter hand, venue, opponent lineup quality (elite→poor offenses), and over the last 30 days. Lower ERA/WHIP is better; OPS-against shows for the hand/venue splits. Hover a tag for the numbers.
| Split | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | OPS-agst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHB | 14.1 | — | 1.40 | 8.8 | 3.1 | .721 |
Luck Factor
How much this pitcher's results are outrunning or trailing the quality of what actually happened — league-relative. Hover a meter for the inputs.
Next 3 Starts
Confirmed = announced probable; Projected = inferred from the rotation (every ~5th team game) and subject to change.
Game Log (27 games)
| Date | Opp | Dec | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4 | @ New York Yankees | - | 1.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 |
| Aug 1 | vs Pittsburgh Pirates | - | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14 |
| Jul 31 | vs Pittsburgh Pirates | - | 0.1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Jul 29 | vs Cleveland Guardians | - | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Jul 28 | vs Cleveland Guardians | - | 1.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 27 |
| Jul 24 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | - | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 |
| Jul 20 | @ Seattle Mariners | - | 0.2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 |
| Jul 18 | @ Colorado Rockies | - | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 18 |
| Jul 11 | vs Chicago Cubs | - | 0.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| Jul 8 | vs Philadelphia Phillies | - | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12 |
| Jul 7 | vs Philadelphia Phillies | - | 0.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| Jul 3 | vs Baltimore Orioles | - | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14 |
| Jun 30 | @ Milwaukee Brewers | - | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18 |
| Jun 27 | @ Pittsburgh Pirates | W | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 14 |
| Jun 26 | @ Pittsburgh Pirates | - | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18 |
| Jun 23 | vs Milwaukee Brewers | - | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| Jun 21 | @ New York Yankees | - | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| Jun 19 | @ New York Yankees | - | 1.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 |
| Jun 15 | vs New York Mets | - | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 27 |
| Jun 13 | vs Arizona Diamondbacks | - | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 20 |
| Jun 10 | @ San Diego Padres | - | 0.1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| Jun 9 | @ San Diego Padres | - | 0.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Jun 7 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | - | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 17 |
| Jun 3 | vs Kansas City Royals | - | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 |
| Jun 1 | vs Kansas City Royals | - | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 34 |
| May 29 | vs Atlanta Braves | - | 1.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 18 |
| May 27 | @ New York Mets | - | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16 |